Future of Energy and Mobility
Mobility is going to change rapidly in the coming years and electric vehicles (EV) proliferate, ride sharing continues to grow, and eventually autonomous vehicles (AV) enter urban fleets. This is especially true in cities where new forms of mobility are concentrated so that investment in supporting infrastructure is needed to accommodate this growth.
Three concern that cover by electric mobility: Environment, Energy, & Mobility. As every one concern about environment and fossil fuel are not good for environment in long term. For run and move energy is are requirement in this global era, with energy we can’t think about to do. Electrification, decentralization and digitalization act in a virtuous cycle, enabling, amplifying and reinforcing developments beyond their individual contribution. Their integrated deployment could generate more than $2.4 trillion of value globally for society and industry by 2025, to increasing the efficiency of the overall system, optimizing capital allocation and creating new services for customers.
Electric cars were popular in the late 19th century and early 20th century, until advances in internal combustion engines, electric starters, and mass production of cheaper petrol (gasoline) and diesel vehicles led to a decline in the use of electric drive vehicles. Cities like Oslo and Montreal where hydropower generates more than 95% of the electricity, with no emissions and no intermittency, Electric Vehicle charging would be continuously clean. Smart charging would still be useful to deal with any local constraints, for example, to reduce the need for grid reinforcements or to shave peaks in demand.
From 2008, a renaissance in electric vehicle manufacturing occurred due to advances in batteries, and the desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. Charging an electric car can be done at a variety of charging stations, these charging stations can be installed in both houses and public areas.
Global Scenario of EVs and in Indian context
Global electric vehicle market was valued at $162.34 billion in 2019, and is projected to reach $802.81 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 22.6%. Asia-Pacific was the highest revenue contributor, accounting for $84.84 billion in 2019, and is estimated to reach $357.81 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 20.1%.
The Indian electric car market size was valued at $71.1 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $707.4 million by 2025, witnessing a CAGR of 34.5% during the forecast period. Government schemes and subsidies are playing a major role in the growth of the market. In addition, the growing environmental concerns owing to high pollution levels in major cities of the country are also positively affecting the market growth.
EVs in Indian market:
Based on the technology, the Indian electric car market has been categorized into battery electric vehicle (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). BEV category held the largest share in the Indian market, contributing over 70% sales volume in 2017.
In the Indian context, any discourse around Electric Vehicles cannot be disjointed from pollution and its impact, dependence on oil imports, dire need to have more renewable sources of energy. The automotive industry could benefit by viewing it not as a threat, but an opportunity. To reduce the air pollution, government has decided to shift from conventional fuel-based vehicles to electric vehicles in addition to implementing several stringent norms.
Maharashtra had the highest sales volume in 2017 in the Indian electric car market. The state is expected to continue being the leading market in the country for electric cars during the forecast period, owing to the state government’s Electric Vehicle Policy 2018 to help electric vehicle market grow by supporting electric vehicle manufacturing, developing charging infrastructure, and offering subsidies to customers on the purchase of these vehicles. The state government announced subsidies for electric cars, amounting up to $1,550 (INR 100,000) per vehicle.
India is currently following Bharat Stage IV (BS IV) norms and would be moving to BS VI emission standard by 2020, skipping BS V. The government has decided to go directly from BS IV to BS VI fuel standards due to environmental degradation, growing pollution levels, and health hazards caused by vehicular pollution. This is a step toward a more sustainable and cleaner environment. As a result, reduction in the usage of conventional fuel-based vehicles is expected, thus increasing the demand for electric vehicles. With BS VI coming into effect, India would come at parity in automotive market with the U.S., and other developed European countries across the globe.
Concerns for EV’s in Indian Market
- Lack of adequate number of charging stations is one of the majors restrain spotted in the Indian electric car market.
- EV technology is highly depends on innovation and Government incentives.
- High price of Electric Vehicles
- Reliance on battery imports
- Reliance on imported components and parts
- Incentives linked to local manufacturing
- Range anxiety among consumers
- Lack of options for high-performance EVs
- Inadequate electricity supply in parts of India
- Lack of quality maintenance and repair options
Challenges and Opportunities.
Even as EVs are expected to become economically competitive, several infrastructure challenges could limit successful adoption of EVs. First among these is the paucity of charging stations, which lag far behind the number of gasoline stations. Currently charging stations cost about $1,200 for a residential charger, $4,000 for a commercial garage charger and $6,000 for a curbside charger. Reallocating Electric Vehicle subsidies from vehicles to charging stations over the next five years so this could enable the deployment of two to eight times, as many charging stations compared to the number of Electric Vehicles subsidized. Public infrastructure is also lagging behind mostly due to uncertainty related to the model of deployment, like including costs, ownership and technical requirements. High-power charging infrastructure (greater than 150kW) positioned along with highways would be a good choice for this public infrastructure.
India does not have enough lithium reserves for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries. This could lead to a substantial change in the country’s energy security priorities, with securing lithium supplies, a key raw material for EV batteries, becoming as important as buying oil and gas fields overseas.
List of countries by lithium production:
|Lithium mine production (tonnes)|
This is easier said than done, given that Chinese firms are already acquiring assets in countries such as Bolivia, Australia and Chile, which have substantive lithium reserves, trying to establish a monopoly on lithium reserves. With China overtaking the US last year as the world’s biggest electric car market, there have been concerns about supply shocks.
Impact to the economy
The negative impact brought by COVID-19 is becoming more and more significant. As of 26 july, there have been 1cr 62lakh confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 648,000 deaths, reported by the WHO. According to a forecast from International Monetary Fund in April, public health measures to prevent the spread of virus have severely disrupted business activities and international travels. As a result, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3% in 2020.
COVID-19 placed significant burdens on small- and medium-sized enterprises, the most vulnerable group in India during this crisis. This impact was seen India’s economy grew 4.2 per cent in 2019-20, the slowest in 11 years.